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| President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington this month could be as consequential for the world economy as then-vice premier Deng Xiaoping’s American tour of 1979. | 中国国家主席习近平本月访美对世界经济的重大意义，可能堪比1979年时任中国副总理邓小平访美之旅。 | |
| This summer’s events have shaken global confidence in China’s commitment to structural economic reforms. What was a high growth economy fuelled by exports, investment and saving needs to shift to growth led by domestic demand and consumption. This adjustment was always going to require skilled steering. The Communist party’s Third Plenum of November 2013 charted that journey with a 326-point [can’t find this figure cd you send source pls?]road map; reformers explained [at the time?] it would take seven to 10 years. When China’s economy slowed earlier this year, the government [can we say government not ‘party’ here?]cheered a surge in stock prices as a signal of confidence. | 今年夏季的局势，让全球不由得怀疑中国实施结构性经济改革的决心。中国过去由出口、投资和储蓄提供动力的高速增长模式，必须转变为由内需和消费拉动的增长模式。这样的调整始终需要高超的掌舵技巧。2013年11月的中共十八届三中全会为这一旅程绘制了一份包含326点内容的路线图；改革派人士解释，完成这张路线图将需要7到10年时间。今年早些时候，中国经济放缓，中国政府却将股市飙升誉为信心犹存的迹象。 | |
| But when markets tumbled, its haphazard reactions appeared counterproductive. The party seemed determined to rule markets as well as people[cut: raising the stakes for its image of unchallenged authority}. Some wondered what these interventions — with their reliance on state-owned enterprises, regulatory diktats,[dictats?] and massive government financing — meant for China’s future reforms. The imposition of controls seemed to conflict | 但是当市场暴跌的时候，中国政府缺乏章法的应对之举似乎起到了反效果。党似乎决心连人和市场一起管。一些人想知道，这些干预措施——依赖国有企业、监管指令以及巨额政府资金——对中国未来的改革意味着什么。硬性施加控制的做法，似乎与开放金融市场以改善资本分配、依赖市场价格配置资源、发展一直充当中国经济增长引擎的私营部门等各项计划都背道而驰。 | |
| with plans to open financial markets in order to better allocate capital, to rely on market prices to allocate resources, and to expand the private sector, which has been the engine of China’s growth. | 1979年，中国的经济改革让人们看到了世界经济将极大发展的希望。到今天，中国的经济表现推动着全球范围内的供应和需求。实际上，去年中国为全球经济增长贡献了40%左右。 | |
| In 1979, China’s economic reforms offered the promise of a vastly expanded world economy. Today, China’s economic performance drives supply and demand around the globe. Indeed, last year China accounted for about 40 per cent of global growth. | 如今，中国经济步履蹒跚，而世界经济举步难艰。7年来，发达经济体一直凭借非常规货币政策来推高资产价格、压低利率并用流动性扑灭风险。七国集团(G7)正竭力从政府刺激的增长模式，转向由私人部门主导的可持续的增长。许多新兴市场遭受大宗商品价格暴跌和中国需求下降的重创。美元持续升值以及美国加息的前景，将让一些发展中债务国面临“美元紧缺”。 | |
| Now China is stumbling while the world economy is struggling. For seven years developed economies have been relying on extraordinary monetary policies [such as?]to boost asset prices, subdue interest rates and douse dangers with liquidity. The G7 economies are straining to hand off from government stimulus to sustained, private sector-led growth. Many emerging markets have been pummeled by collapsing commodity prices and falling demand from China. The rising value of the US dollar, and the prospect of an increase in | 然而，中国的难题不会带来全球暴跌的风险。中国政府拥有许多刺激经济的工具，况且还有巨额外汇储备。习近平要面对的关键问题是：中共计划怎么让结构性经济改革计划回到正轨？细节非常重要。中国的新汇率政策既可能是向着开放资本市场、引导投资流向更具生产性的领域迈出的一步，也可能是为推动出口而采取的竞争性贬值举措。 | |
| US interest rates is creating a “dollar squeeze” for some developing country debtors. | 如果中国政府回到依赖国有企业“维护稳定”的老路，效率低下、缺乏透明度、不太受市场纪律约束的特殊利益群体就会得势。邓小平和朱镕基利用外来竞争，推动中国公司和工人迈向世界级水准。如果中共现在维护国家的“宠儿”，庇护本土创新者，并将问题归咎于外国干预，中国的市场注定要落后。 | |
| China’s travails do not, however, pose a risk of a global plunge. The government has a number of tools to stimulate the economy — and it is backed by huge reserves. The key question for Mr Xi is: what does the party plan to do to get China’s structural economic reform plan back on track? Particulars matter. China’s new exchange rate policy could be a step towards opening capital markets to help shift investment to more productive uses, or a competitive devaluation to boost exports. | 2013年中共三中全会的大胆改革设想承认不同活动之间彼此关联（比如税务改革、市场定价、通过改革户籍制度进行劳动力市场改革、环保收费和整顿，以及扩大服务部门），所有这些都与中国的城市化相关联。但下一步呢？ | |
| If its government retreats to reliance on state-owned enterprises for “stability”, China will be favouring special interests that are less efficient, less transparent, and less disciplined by markets. Deng, and former premier Zhu Rongji, used foreign competition to drive Chinese companies and workers to world class performance. If the party now protects national favourites and shelters indigenous innovators — while blaming problems on foreign interference — China’s market will lag, not lead. | 习近平视为重要任务的事项彼此冲突。他的反腐运动意在让中共恢复活力——以及增强他在2017年挑选下届政治局常委的权力。中国在对外方面抛弃了邓小平的谨慎，而倾向于主张大国特权，这让笼罩在中国阴影之下的国家感到担忧。 | |
| The bold reform ideas of the party conclave in 2013 recognised the interconnection of diverse activities (such as tax reform, market pricing, labour market adaptation through changes in the household registration system, environmental charges and clean-ups, and expansion of the service sector) — all of which are connected to China’s urbanisation. But what is next? | 美国总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)应该阐述美国在税收、福利支出、移民和贸易方面的结构性经济改革计划。但习近平可能不得不等到奥巴马的继任者上台才能听到美国的经济增长计划。与此同时，美国私人部门在能源、软件、大数据应用、生物工程和机器人领域的活力，为全球增长做出了美国的贡献。 | |
| Mr Xi has competing priorities. His anti-corruption campaign is supposed to rejuvenate the party — and enhance the president’s power to select the next Standing committee in 2017. China’s foreign ventures have abandoned Deng’s caution in favour of an assertion of | 全球最大经济体的领导人们现在必须阐明各自的增长战略，对于可能妨碍合作的经济、安全和网络方面的风险，必须敞开来谈。假如今日在政策上放任自流，世界经济将有被湍流淹没的危险。 | |
| great power prerogatives, worrying states that fall under China’s shadow. | 本文作者曾任世界银行(World Bank)行长和美国贸易代表。 | |
| President Barack Obama should explain US plans for structural economic reforms — for taxes, entitlement expenditures, immigration and trade. But Mr Xi is likely to have to wait to | ||
| hear about US growth plans from Mr Obama’s successor. In the meantime, the dynamism of the US private sector — in energy, software, use of Big Data, | ||
| bioengineering and robotics — offers America’s contribution to growth. | ||
| The leaders of the world’s largest economies now need to explain their growth strategies. And they need to be explicit about the risks — economic, security and cyber — that might impede co-operation. Today’s policy drift places the world economy in danger of being swamped by hazardous currents. | ||
| The writer is a former president of the World Bank and US Trade Representative |