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| When bullish but prudent investors in Chinese shares wished to hedge their long positions this past spring, one popular way to do so in a market that made direct shorts difficult was to take bearish bets on Australia, which was one of the main beneficiaries of the boom in China. Now that the Chinese market has reversed course big time, shorting the Aussie dollar makes even more sense. Over the past year, the Aussie has fallen from more than US$0.90 to less than US$0.70, and probably still has further to fall. | 今年春天，当乐观但审慎的投资者希望对冲中国股票的多头头寸时，鉴于中国股市难以直接做空，一种流行的方式是做空澳大利亚，因为该国是中国经济繁荣的主要受益者之一。如今，既然中国股市已发生彻底逆转，人们更有理由去做空澳元。过去一年，澳元兑美元汇率已从逾90美分兑1澳元跌至不到70美分兑1澳元，而且很可能还会进一步下跌。 | |
| No matter how hard the landing in China, the fall will be even harder for those like Australia that prospered from the commodities boom. That has been true for a while and will be driven home even harder in the wake of the drop. | 不论中国经济“硬着陆”有多么严重，那些借助大宗商品超级周期繁荣的国家（如澳大利亚）将跌得更惨。这一点变得明显已经有一段时间了，在近期股市下跌后将更加明显。 | |
| Trades that worked well in the past as a hedge on a growing China, on a surge in China shares pushed by complacent investors, and on an overconfident government, work even better as the country slows. These trades include negative positions on copper, iron ore or commodities indices, and shorts on the currencies of those that, like Australia, sold raw materials to China, or those, such as the Koreans and Taiwanese, who sell semi-processed goods to the mainland and are therefore also in for tougher times. | 过去，要对冲中国增长、对冲被自信满满的投资者推至暴涨的中国股价、对冲过于自信的中国政府，有些交易很管用，这些交易在中国经济放缓之际更加管用。这些交易包括对铜、铁矿石或大宗商品指数的空头头寸，以及做空那些向中国出售原材料的国家（如澳大利亚）或者那些向中国内地销售半成品、因此同样处于较艰难时期的经济体（如韩国和台湾）的货币。 | |
| Such trades also involve much less chance of being whipsawed by the markets. In addition, they have the undeniable advantage for China-based investors of reducing the likelihood of being cited for treason by angry regulators looking for scapegoats (or investors contemplating losses on their portfolios). | 这些交易还意味着被全球股市的动荡搞得措手不及的几率小得多。此外，对于家住中国的投资者，它们具有不可否认的优势，因为它们减小了被寻找替罪羊的愤怒监管机构（或者对自己的投资亏损耿耿于怀的投资者）扣上叛国帽子的几率。 | |
| Alas! This has not been a carefree summer for most China hedge funds, even apart from the fear of being singled out by vengeful authorities. Funds that were negative on China as the market rose in May and early June found their investors asking to redeem, and many cut their short positions in response — in retrospect at the worst possible time. And equity long-short hedge funds that tried to engage in relative value trades have had a worse time as everything went down, which meant that on a net basis, they too lost money. | 唉！对于多数中国对冲基金来说，即使不提被伺机报复的当局找茬的担心，今年夏天的日子也过得不消停。5月至6月初，随着中国股市上涨，看空中国的基金发现他们的投资者要求赎回，于是许多基金削减了空头头寸——现在回想起来，那是最糟糕的时候。而试图做相对价值交易的多/空对冲股票基金的日子更不好过，因为价格全面下跌意味着他们到头来也赔了钱。 | |
| The regulators, meanwhile, have become just one more reason to be bearish about China given both the extent of the interventions and their lack of efficacy. Their actions have shown just how far the markets are from being governed by rule of law rather than bureaucratic fiat. | 与此同时，从监管机构干预的程度及其缺乏成效看，监管机构本身成为看空中国的又一个理由。它们的行为表明，中国金融市场距离法治（而非受官僚意志支配）还差得多么遥远。 | |
| Still, though it is still way too early today, there will be a time to return to the Chinese markets (whether for debt or stocks) and a time when fundamental analysis and relative value trades will work once more. Indeed, in some ways it is even possible to look ahead and make a better case for China than the US. | 但话说回来，尽管今天仍为时过早，但总有重返中国市场（无论是债市还是股市）的时候，也有基本面分析和相对价值交易将再次管用的时候。的确，从某些方面说，甚至有可能在展望未来的时候对中国比对美国更有信心。 | |
| Beijing understands way better than the Americans (or the current regime in Tokyo or at the Bank of Japan) that monetary policy alone cannot be the catalyst for economic growth. And the Chinese government has both the will and the resources to pursue more aggressive fiscal policy. | 中国官方比美国当局——或当前的日本政府或日本央行(Bank of Japan)——更明白：仅靠货币政策无法推动经济增长。而且，中国政府既有意志也有资源来推行更积极的财政政策。 | |
| While it is true that the efficacy of investment has fallen, any veteran of the US long distance railway, Amtrak, even at its best, can testify to the value of China’s fast speed trains as they travel the 1,500km between Beijing and Shanghai at 300km an hour. | 虽然投资的成效的确已经降低，但美国长途铁路——即使是美国铁路公司(Amtrak)的最优秀服务——的老乘客，只要乘坐过总长1500公里、时速300公里的京沪高铁，都会为中国高铁的价值作证。 | |
| It is also worth recalling that 25 years ago, many analysts dismissed prosperous Pudong as a white elephant. Yet Shanghai, like an elephant growing into its wrinkled skin, has long since grown into the gleaming glass towers of Pudong across the Huangpu river. | 同样值得回顾的是，25年前，许多分析师对繁荣的浦东不屑一顾，称之为白象（white elephant，意为无用且昂贵——译者注）。然而，如同一头长至壮年的大象，黄浦江对岸的浦东早已遍布闪亮的玻璃幕墙摩天大楼。 | |
| Most fund managers long ago unwound their renminbi carry trades (borrowing in yen or euros to go long the Chinese currency). But there will be a time when renminbi will also prove attractive once more, however counterintuitive this appears. China still has a trade surplus, if anything one growing on the back of collapsing energy prices. | 多数基金公司早已解除了人民币套利交易（借入日元或欧元以买进人民币）。但总有那么一天，人民币将再次证明其吸引力，无论现在这话多么有悖直觉。中国仍有贸易顺差，而能源价格暴跌会扩大这一顺差。 | |
| Some analysts, such as CLSA’s Chris Wood, are still recommending that investors go long Chinese government bonds that currently yield 3.35 per cent in a deflationary environment. | 有分析师——如里昂证券(CLSA)的克里斯?伍德(Chris Wood)——仍建议投资者买进中国政府债券，其收益率为3.35%，在当前通缩环境实在是不错的。 | |
| Being a contrarian bear was not ideal in the spring, just as being a bull has been treacherous since mid-June. Now finally it may be time to be a contrarian once more. | 今春时，作为反向投资的熊市论者并非理想选择，就像6月中旬以来的牛市论者一样危险。而现在也许终于是再次做反向投资者的时候了。 |